The AAP’s historic victory was underestimated by all exit polls and even those who caught the lead missed the extent of the wave. It wasn’t only poor fieldwork quality or sampling errors of an exit poll; something went wrong beyond the usual. With a 21 percentage point lead, simple swing models would give the AAP about 65 seats. So what went wrong? The problem is that not only did the seat forecasts go wrong, even vote share estimates were off.
THE UN(MAKING) OF BIHAR